Houston Property Prices to Rise 3.8%; Key Markets in Florida and Nevada to Drop 6-7% SANTA ANA, Calif.--(EON: Enhanced Online News)--The Houston and Dallas metro areas show the strongest home price appreciation over the next 12 months in the most recent update to the U.S. real estate market forecast from Veros Real Estate Solutions, an industry leader in enterprise risk management and collateral valuation services. VeroFORECAST shows Texas cities leading the nation with home prices in these areas expected to post the strongest appreciation. Meanwhile, Florida home markets continue to struggle as the state placed four metro areas in the rankings of the five projected weakest markets led by Port St. Lucie / Fort Pierce.
Veros’ U.S. real estate market forecast uses advanced analytics and micro-market data to achieve highly accurate results. The company’s VeroFORECAST product is utilized by economists, statisticians and business leaders all along the mortgage industry value chain as a key resource for forecasting and strategic planning due to its consistent strength and accuracy over the eight years the forecast has been available. The quarterly forecast update for September 2010 through September 2011 indicates consistent gains in some markets.“Texas is looking strong, with four of the top ten markets in the appreciation forecast,” says Eric Fox, Veros’ vice president of statistical and economic modeling. “California markets are less robust than in previous quarterly updates, but remain steady, with Riverside / San Bernardino remaining in the top ten due to affordability and seasonal trends. Anchorage is showing modest gains, as are the Central Plains, with a rise in the Davenport / Moline / Rock Island areas of Illinois and Iowa.”{}}The Houston metro area improved over the previous quarter, with low unemployment in the region being a contributing factor. Dallas metro and Amarillo both moved up in the standings from the previous update, owing to improved affordability. The central Great Plains continue to be steady, with especially good forecasts for Texas, Louisiana, Missouri, Iowa, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska and South Dakota.Projected Five Strongest Markets*1. Houston / Sugar Land / Baytown, TX +3.8%2. Dallas / Fort Worth / Arlington, TX +2.7%3. Amarillo, TX +2.7%4. Anchorage, AK +2.7%5. Davenport / Moline / Rock Island, IA-IL +2.7%In marked contrast to the forecast for Texas, the outlook for Florida remains weak, with six of the bottom ten markets in the forecast. “There is some improvement in the negative growth markets,” Fox says. “For example, the Daytona area was at -8.3% last quarter and this forecast shows an improved change to -6.0%. There are more Florida communities on the weakest market list this time, but they appear to be depreciating at a reduced rate.”“The reduced depreciation rates are better news for Florida and Nevada,” Fox says. “Approximately one-third of the markets forecast are expected to appreciate in the next 12 months, and two-thirds are expected to depreciate. In the longer 12- to 24-month horizon, we anticipate this ratio to even out to 50-50, with half appreciating gently and half depreciating similarly,” he notes. “There are tangible indications that things are getting better as time moves on.”Projected Five Weakest Markets*1. Port St. Lucie / Fort Pierce, FL -7.2%2. Reno / Sparks, NV -7.0%3. Orlando / Kissimmee, FL -6.3%4. Las Vegas / Paradise, NV -6.1%5. Deltona / Daytona Beach / Ormond Beach, FL -6.0%
VeroFORECAST provides forecasts on the national real estate market with the capacity to segment results by property types, by three distinct pricing tiers – upper, middle and entry-level – and by metro area, county and zip code. The forecast utilizes more than 50 critical decisioning factors in its forecast analytics to develop reliable market trend predictions covering more than 900 counties, more than 300 metro areas and nearly 14,000 zip codes. Key factors range from interest, unemployment and inflation rates, to housing inventory levels and an array of economic and geographic trends. Veros engineered VeroFORECAST in response to demand for more focused, more useful reports featuring improved methods and emphasizing more localized data sources in its analytics.
*Markets demonstrated are for residential real estate in major metro areas (typically greater than 500,000 residents) among single-family homes in the median price tier.